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Sep 22, 2010

What are we doing about this?

If this is the case then why are we doing this. Surely someone must've thought of it & doing something about it.
Who? Where?
Our governments, politicians, bureaucrats, world leaders, scientists, economists or somebody at the top or somewhere.
Probably they do & they are doing something about it. Say they come out with a law. Is that enough? Will we people co-operate? Do they know it from an angle whereby they will understand, compromise, concede or co-operate. Apart from that such things if publicized cause mainly panic & more trouble than understanding & co-operation among the people. So governments take every effort to deny or hide such things.
Yeah. We don't see the connection immediately because we are far removed from the cause(over consumption by an every growing population) & the effect(killing the balance & support for life that nature provides us) of it. I've never thought about these things from this angle.
Like you said the solution is not making laws & implementing by forcing me in some way or the other. But by educating the individual or my taking an interest in these things for awareness primarily. But these details can also scare & panic people & result in a blame game, which isn't of much use. But education & research into these areas are of very high importance but not to create more temporary solutions. Going after solutions comes after we understand the problems we've created and translating it to little actions into small savings translating into a sustainable lifestyle. But how is the question?
I don't know. You tell me. I don't think of this as a simple problem.
See from what I understood the relationship is very simple. Like you said consumption is the key. People need all these things for every day living. They get it from nature only. But population is also increasing. So consumption is also increasing. We need renewable stuff for staying alive more than non-renewable which only makes our life easier. So we need to cut back on our life-style by either just retaining the same life-style(or less to the level of minimum) & controlling population as well. Its that simple.
If we stop consuming or wanting then what about development of the country in terms of standard of living. How much of your present day comforts are you will to compromise & how much of your future ambitions are you willing to forgo?
You call this development? We are systematically messing with nature to get what? A better & bigger house or car? Is that what we want? Is this what is called development?
At one point I thought of it like that only. But now I don't. Most important of all how will you get this message across to everyone in your own country let alone other countries especially people in developed countries who have a much better life-style than people in India? How will you convince them to cut back on their consumption? They've to make more sacrifices than us in India. India is consuming 2.8 mbpd with 1.2 bil people, China is consuming 6 mbpd with 1.4 bil people, USA is 20.8 mbpd with ~300 mil & I don't know about countries like Japan & UK. According to this world oil consumption (here's another one too) site & the recent climate change negotiations at Copenhagen, none of the developed countries are willing to reduce their standard of life or consumption because they are arguing that the developing countries India & China are increasing their consumption of coal & oil like crazy with their large populations & new found buying power. Looking at their angle its a lot more difficult for them. Especially when there is not one benefit for them in adjusting for someone else's benefit either neighbors or their own future generations. In fact its only more trouble when you are used to certain comforts & have to choose not to have them.
Does climate & temperature understand about developed or developing country? Don't the developed nation's know this with all their research & science & advanced technology? Can't they see the implications? They've been consuming all along & now they worry & complain about India & China!!!
Try telling that to countries like US or UK or Japan. In fact during one of climate change conferences, I think it was George H.W. Bush Sr.(George W. Bush's father) at Rio Earth Summit(1992) who actually said "The American lifestyle is not negotiable!" (Another one). With such reactions & outlook we are far from convincing even one of them.
I wonder who he was negotiating with?
Nature or climate perhaps?
Ha ha ha. But come on! Everybody takes to Bush bashing for every problem including his successor(Obama). Now you are piling on & blaming climate also on him?
No. I'm not. I'm not blaming Bush for all the problems. It'd be simpler if he were the source of all this.
What do you mean? You can't blame American's for Bush either?
And It was not George W. Bush(the famous one, famous for Iraq war & 9/11, the term I mean) I was talking about. But his father George H.W. Bush Sr. This is not to blame anyone. No one is blaming here & it is no use blaming other people be it Americans now or Europeans before that.
Oh! His father too. Like father, like son. 
See what you are doing now!
What did I do?
Blaming!
I dint blame him. I was just making a plain observation. But before I forget. Why do Europeans come into this?
If I dip into a bit of pre-history, is it ok?
Go ahead. I should've never talked to you. I did. So no use going back. At-least I'm learning some thing some way or the other.
Oh Really? I dint learn properly either. I'll tell you later about all that.
Yeah! Yeah! Lets get back on track. Go ahead about this pre-historic stuff.
We all were hunters once upon a time, like say 10,000-14,000 years back(I dunno exactly).
That I know. All of us were non-veg at that time.
But hunting is difficult & unpredictable.
Why? What was so difficult?
We human beings are not like animals in many ways. We dont have strong bones(to run), specialized or well developed muscles for fighting & strength

To be continued....

May 14, 2010

Lifestyle built around scarce things?

How long do you think this can last? I know that there are 6.8 billion people on earth now. Do we know how much of non-renewable resources are there on the planet?
Not right away. I think we can find out because our governments do surveys & explorations of all these resources periodically. So they'd have the figures. This I think can be obtained through instruments like RTI(Right to Information Act) in India & Freedom of Information Act in USA. Other countries would or must have something similar.
So if our governments know then we don't have to worry about it then they should & will make the necessary laws & arrangements to fix any problems that arise or might arise.
If all problems can be fixed with laws & governmental arrangements then there should be no problems at all now.
So what are you saying? That we should all leave our jobs & just start shouting & preaching save the environment, stop consuming, etc. That would be stupid.
Yeah true. So that's not the way. We all think that only non-renewable resources are the problem & not renewable resources right? Then why is the climate changing?
It sure is becoming hotter every year. But I don't understand. Whats the connection?
OK for now lets put climate aside for later. Why is water becoming a problem & rain is also scarce now? Surely that is renewable.
Yes it is provided the balance of climate, evaporation, condensation cycle is not disturbed.
Who is disturbing it?
If nobody is disturbing it, then why do we have problems with water then! The key here is, we need water which is more important than even food because for agriculture we need water. Lots & lots of it.
Agriculture is not the only means of food. We have other sources too.
Sorry to mow your dreams but then our goats & cows have to be fed right. Where does that come from? Agriculture. Right?
So what are you driving at? Climate, water now food? its all very confusing.
See for processing or cleaning our food, whether vegetarian or non-vegetarian we need water. We need water for coke, beer, clothes, buildings, everything. Tell me one industry or one aspect of our life-style which doesn't need water. In fact 30-40% of our electricity comes from water. For water we need forests, plants & trees.
Yeah water sure is important. Man can live without food but not without water. Its not without reason all our early civilization settled & developed close to rivers.
But our life style needs of house, infrastructure like roads, railways, airports,etc leave not only less or no urban greenery but eat into forest cover as well.
So what? Why are they so important?
Forests & rain are very related. No forests no rain & vice-versa as well. Also all minerals like iron, coal, copper, aluminium are in areas in & around forests & wild-life sanctuaries. Also most rivers flow through forests. So chemical plants, mineral extraction & processing plants along the coast of rivers cause a lot of damage not only to river water but to agriculture down-stream & aquatic life in the river, water-level for the forest & the wild-life.
Yeah correct. Also the infrastructure & housing industry uses a lot of top soil from river belts only. They don't use beach sand or any other sand but precious top soil which takes millions of years of erosion of rocks to make.We've read all about top soil & erosion in school. But this is new to me?
Yeah. For most of us it is. Another important factor which diminishes forest areas are farming lands. Food needs & need for larger farming lands increases with ever increasing population(around 80 mil per anum). Where do you think all the energy for this for transportation & electricity is coming from?
Tell me where?
Our source of electricity & transportation, which is mainly coal, oil & natural gas. 40-50% of our electricity comes from coal which is one form of hydro-carbon fossil fuel. As on 2007, India got 51% of its total electricity(160,198 MW total) from coal. The other one oil not only powers transportation but also provides pesticides, fungicides & insecticides. Fertilizer & urea is made from natural gas. Oil & gas provide the sources, ways & means to produce them cheaply & in large quantities which directly impact the cost/quantity of our food.
Oh! I dint know that.
Also the burning of oil causes climate change which has an impact on the rain water cycle I told you earlier, making rain erratic. This we already see in many coastal areas & it shows no indication of coming down anytime soon.
Is that so? I dint know that all this comes from oil & that it has an effect on climate & rains.
Also the food is produced & transported using oil based vehicles like tractors & trucks. The electricity that powers the pumps also comes from coal. Also plastics used for insulation, plastic bags, toys, consumer electronics like TVs, remote, phones, containers, packaging & wherever or for whatever you may use plastic. Not to mention pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals & many other stuff we may not know about.
So what about it? Whats the point?
I saw a study by something like WHO or UNESCO, which said that for every 1 calorie of food that we consume, we spend 10 calories of hydrocarbon energy. So the point is we have an unsustainable life-style.
Oh is that so? Why is it unsustainable? How can it be unsustainable?
Don't you see it? For 1 calorie food output, we spend 10 calories of hydro-carbon energy. Isn't that absurd?
1 for 10! That is absurd. But we do have lots of oil. Don't we? It has lasted for more than 150 yrs now. Surely it should last us atleast another 100 yrs more.
Do you know exactly how much of oil is there & how much we are consuming?
Nope. Do you?
Not fully. Just a little. But this may get a little technical so do you want to hear this?
I'll surely try. This is starting to sound mighty important!
Well we have around 1-3(max 4) trillion barrels of oil reserves of crude oil. Out of which only half can be used it seems because after a certain point you'll be spending more oil(to get the oil out) than you get out of it so its of no use. So say half of it is 1 trillion. Out of this 1 trillion some of it is deep oil or deep sea oil or low quality oil it seems which is lets say 30%. So 700 billion barrels. Today's oil consumption rate is around 88-92 million barrels per day(Production: ~ 90-93 mbpd@2010 approximate since these figures are a matter of security) growing at the rate of 6-7% per year. If it is, say 7% rate of increase per year, it means that the rate of consumption will double every 10 years(You can make that out from the tables, like world oil consumption or here's another one too, easily). Now you can either use a formula from The_Limits_to_Growth or, better yet, derive it yourself. But which ever way the answer u get for a 700 billion barrel reserve & 90mbpd  & 7% CAGR is 8.43 yrs from 2010.
That's all? Only 8.5 yrs?
Hey this is only a rough estimate for figurative estimate. Given the accuracy of the figures it'll vary around this. The original Hubbert peak oil curve looks like a inverted cup like curve & the demand is an exponential curve. If you want you can go read about peak-oil & all that & try it yourself accurately.
I dint know oil was so critical & played such a big role in so many aspects of our life rather life-style. I dont understand exponent or expoential(whatever) & all that.
Even I dint understand all this, exponential & all. I had a hard time at school with math. But once I started studying about all this, I decided that for once let me set aside my fear of numbers or math & try to understand this. Thankfully I was able to understand & figure out now.
But why do you say on crude oil alone? Are there other oils or some other source or means?
Yeah there are. Like deep sea oil, which is still liquid crude oil only but only harder & more expensive in terms of both cost, equipment, effort & energy to get out. Its is also poor in composition. Plus you have the problem of oil spills like in the recent Gulf of Mexico & others. There is also shale oil & tar sands. But they are very difficult to extract, not very efficient right now, need lots & lots of water, environmentally very polluting, requires more processing in terms time & effort to extract oil & most of all a lot more expensive.
Does that mean after 8.5 yrs all oil will be gone?
Not exactly. Oil will still be produced but will be very less & too expensive both cost & energy wise to be useful to us. So most of the powerful military powers like UK or US or China or whoever has more nuclear or more weapons may fight for it & bully others by taking it from the others. We'll have a lot of small conflicts or even a world war(Aha World War 3)!
Man this is too much. I shouldn't have spoken to you at all. I don't want to learn such things.
Same here. But saying that won't make it go away. Think I enjoyed hearing that our way life would come to an end very soon. Even I'm feeling bad about all this. In fact in such a short time we must be able to get everyone aware even before thinking about preparing for a world without oil.
Who'd believe all this? What if all this is wrong?
There are lot of indications for it already. A lot of people are already speaking about it. But they dont get any media attention or wide-spread publication because governments esp the developed world are scared this would cause widespread panic. So such coverage of such information is discouraged. Some governments may even create diversions to avoid the effects from being obvious.
So oil peak has been reached you say? Then what is this 8.5 yrs.
The oil peak has most likely occured already(M. King Hubbert predicted 2006. Some others say 2010-14). But its around the corner or we are sitting on it. after the peak it'll go down as a curve in a similar way it went up. But because of increasing demand it'll go down faster than it went up.
Man you've really made my day. I don't think I can sleep properly hearing all this.


To be continued....

May 7, 2010

Life Style: Are we willing to compromise, forget giving up, our current comforts or our Life-style! No way.

Why should I compromise or give up or even think about it?
Like say if you know the consequences of our life-style or, precisely, your life-style.
What consequences?
We have only one planet Earth. Today there are 6.9 billion people on this planet. Almost everybody wants a good life like, say Europe or America. In an interview about World energy needs of Oil & conflict between United States & china, I think Mr. Ken Courtis, Managing Director, Goldman Sachs Asia , who is basically a Canadian, summed it up very precisely,
"Today half the worlds population is in China, India & other Central & South Asian countries who want to live like us & don't see why they can't live like us. What are we going to say? Fine you take more & we'll take less? Probably not. So it becomes obvious that the stakes around energy will be raised & become more & more important in international politics. There could eventually be wars. But I think it's more likely that we'll see an intensification of strategic alliances forged between countries. We'll see growing problems around the energy internationally.We'll see an ferocious struggle for control of the world energy assets. So once again,regions like Africa & Central Asia will be at the center of the politico-economical conflict. ".
So as you see all this stems from our needs & consumption which revolves around Energy, what ever form it comes like food or electricity or coal or oil or petrol or diesel or kerosene or nuclear energy or even water. Of all the most important things for our life is food & water & for our life style, fossil fuels especially oil & coal. So whatever is happening today is because of increasing usage of  fossil fuels & increasing population & The effect is for everybody.
Like what?
Inflation for example & Global Warming & Frequent economic recessions or most importantly War.
What has that got to do with the way I live or want to live?
It has everything to do with the way we live.
Meaning? Explain yourself? What consequences? How & why?
Our lifestyle today can be summed up in one word - Consumption.
Of what?
Of all the stuff we own/need/want/yearn/aspire/dream about like food, water, clothes, electricity, books, car, house, phones, toys, etc.
From where?
The seller of course.
Where does the seller get his stuff from?
The distributor or wholesaler.
OK. Where does he get it from?
The manufacturer or producer.
And where does he...?
The manufacturer gets it from nature's raw materials or other industries or manufactures who make or process raw materials or from agriculture/farmers. Whatever? What is you point?
So we get everything like trees, plants, water, food, wood ,rain, wind, oil, coal, iron, gold, uranium, diamond, etc from nature. Right?
So how much of this stuff is left or available then?
I know there are a lot of trees & plants. Water & rain as well. They are always there and keep growing up or coming around once in a while. The same goes for our food as well. We get it from plants ,trees & animals. All of them are available in large amounts.
Haven't you read in school that all the wind, rain, plants & trees depend of the sun for all this to work properly & regularly? And they are called renewable sources.
Yeah smarty-pants, I have. The sun is also there always too. There is no scarcity in that. Guess stuff like oil, coal, iron, gold, uranium, diamond, etc are in limited number & quantity & they are not gonna grow anywhere. I know that too.
Yeah. They are called non-renewable resources. So if we are getting(& keep taking) stuff from nature for so many people for so long, does nature have enough of the stuff that we want or can it produce as fast as we take?
That I don't know. But I guess there is enough for everyone.
Then why some people have more & some people have less & some have nothing. Be it food, water, house, clothes, cars,jewels or anything? Why this difference?
Yeah nowadays we buy water before we used to get it from a well. But why does everything have a tendency to become less or scarce? That means things from nature have a limit either in terms of availability(non-renewable like iron, gold, oil, coal, uranium, etc) or rate of replenishment(renewable like trees, plants, water, food, wood ,rain, wind, etc).
Hey it looks like we need renewable resources more than this non-renewable stuff. But the other one (non-renewable) does make our life easier & better.
Yeah but with increasing population & fixed amount of non-renewable resources, don't you see where our scarcity comes from?
Yeah dude true. Our better lifestyle comes from non-renewable resources mainly. But with increasing population & increasing consumption how long can this ever growing consuming life-style last?
To be continued...