Lifestyle built around scarce things?

How long do you think this can last? I know that there are 6.8 billion people on earth now. Do we know how much of non-renewable resources are there on the planet?
Not right away. I think we can find out because our governments do surveys & explorations of all these resources periodically. So they'd have the figures. This I think can be obtained through instruments like RTI(Right to Information Act) in India & Freedom of Information Act in USA. Other countries would or must have something similar.
So if our governments know then we don't have to worry about it then they should & will make the necessary laws & arrangements to fix any problems that arise or might arise.
If all problems can be fixed with laws & governmental arrangements then there should be no problems at all now.
So what are you saying? That we should all leave our jobs & just start shouting & preaching save the environment, stop consuming, etc. That would be stupid.
Yeah true. So that's not the way. We all think that only non-renewable resources are the problem & not renewable resources right? Then why is the climate changing?
It sure is becoming hotter every year. But I don't understand. Whats the connection?
OK for now lets put climate aside for later. Why is water becoming a problem & rain is also scarce now? Surely that is renewable.
Yes it is provided the balance of climate, evaporation, condensation cycle is not disturbed.
Who is disturbing it?
If nobody is disturbing it, then why do we have problems with water then! The key here is, we need water which is more important than even food because for agriculture we need water. Lots & lots of it.
Agriculture is not the only means of food. We have other sources too.
Sorry to mow your dreams but then our goats & cows have to be fed right. Where does that come from? Agriculture. Right?
So what are you driving at? Climate, water now food? its all very confusing.
See for processing or cleaning our food, whether vegetarian or non-vegetarian we need water. We need water for coke, beer, clothes, buildings, everything. Tell me one industry or one aspect of our life-style which doesn't need water. In fact 30-40% of our electricity comes from water. For water we need forests, plants & trees.
Yeah water sure is important. Man can live without food but not without water. Its not without reason all our early civilization settled & developed close to rivers.
But our life style needs of house, infrastructure like roads, railways, airports,etc leave not only less or no urban greenery but eat into forest cover as well.
So what? Why are they so important?
Forests & rain are very related. No forests no rain & vice-versa as well. Also all minerals like iron, coal, copper, aluminium are in areas in & around forests & wild-life sanctuaries. Also most rivers flow through forests. So chemical plants, mineral extraction & processing plants along the coast of rivers cause a lot of damage not only to river water but to agriculture down-stream & aquatic life in the river, water-level for the forest & the wild-life.
Yeah correct. Also the infrastructure & housing industry uses a lot of top soil from river belts only. They don't use beach sand or any other sand but precious top soil which takes millions of years of erosion of rocks to make.We've read all about top soil & erosion in school. But this is new to me?
Yeah. For most of us it is. Another important factor which diminishes forest areas are farming lands. Food needs & need for larger farming lands increases with ever increasing population(around 80 mil per anum). Where do you think all the energy for this for transportation & electricity is coming from?
Tell me where?
Our source of electricity & transportation, which is mainly coal, oil & natural gas. 40-50% of our electricity comes from coal which is one form of hydro-carbon fossil fuel. As on 2007, India got 51% of its total electricity(160,198 MW total) from coal. The other one oil not only powers transportation but also provides pesticides, fungicides & insecticides. Fertilizer & urea is made from natural gas. Oil & gas provide the sources, ways & means to produce them cheaply & in large quantities which directly impact the cost/quantity of our food.
Oh! I dint know that.
Also the burning of oil causes climate change which has an impact on the rain water cycle I told you earlier, making rain erratic. This we already see in many coastal areas & it shows no indication of coming down anytime soon.
Is that so? I dint know that all this comes from oil & that it has an effect on climate & rains.
Also the food is produced & transported using oil based vehicles like tractors & trucks. The electricity that powers the pumps also comes from coal. Also plastics used for insulation, plastic bags, toys, consumer electronics like TVs, remote, phones, containers, packaging & wherever or for whatever you may use plastic. Not to mention pharmaceuticals, petrochemicals & many other stuff we may not know about.
So what about it? Whats the point?
I saw a study by something like WHO or UNESCO, which said that for every 1 calorie of food that we consume, we spend 10 calories of hydrocarbon energy. So the point is we have an unsustainable life-style.
Oh is that so? Why is it unsustainable? How can it be unsustainable?
Don't you see it? For 1 calorie food output, we spend 10 calories of hydro-carbon energy. Isn't that absurd?
1 for 10! That is absurd. But we do have lots of oil. Don't we? It has lasted for more than 150 yrs now. Surely it should last us atleast another 100 yrs more.
Do you know exactly how much of oil is there & how much we are consuming?
Nope. Do you?
Not fully. Just a little. But this may get a little technical so do you want to hear this?
I'll surely try. This is starting to sound mighty important!
Well we have around 1-3(max 4) trillion barrels of oil reserves of crude oil. Out of which only half can be used it seems because after a certain point you'll be spending more oil(to get the oil out) than you get out of it so its of no use. So say half of it is 1 trillion. Out of this 1 trillion some of it is deep oil or deep sea oil or low quality oil it seems which is lets say 30%. So 700 billion barrels. Today's oil consumption rate is around 88-92 million barrels per day(Production: ~ 90-93 mbpd@2010 approximate since these figures are a matter of security) growing at the rate of 6-7% per year. If it is, say 7% rate of increase per year, it means that the rate of consumption will double every 10 years(You can make that out from the tables, like world oil consumption or here's another one too, easily). Now you can either use a formula from The_Limits_to_Growth or, better yet, derive it yourself. But which ever way the answer u get for a 700 billion barrel reserve & 90mbpd  & 7% CAGR is 8.43 yrs from 2010.
That's all? Only 8.5 yrs?
Hey this is only a rough estimate for figurative estimate. Given the accuracy of the figures it'll vary around this. The original Hubbert peak oil curve looks like a inverted cup like curve & the demand is an exponential curve. If you want you can go read about peak-oil & all that & try it yourself accurately.
I dint know oil was so critical & played such a big role in so many aspects of our life rather life-style. I dont understand exponent or expoential(whatever) & all that.
Even I dint understand all this, exponential & all. I had a hard time at school with math. But once I started studying about all this, I decided that for once let me set aside my fear of numbers or math & try to understand this. Thankfully I was able to understand & figure out now.
But why do you say on crude oil alone? Are there other oils or some other source or means?
Yeah there are. Like deep sea oil, which is still liquid crude oil only but only harder & more expensive in terms of both cost, equipment, effort & energy to get out. Its is also poor in composition. Plus you have the problem of oil spills like in the recent Gulf of Mexico & others. There is also shale oil & tar sands. But they are very difficult to extract, not very efficient right now, need lots & lots of water, environmentally very polluting, requires more processing in terms time & effort to extract oil & most of all a lot more expensive.
Does that mean after 8.5 yrs all oil will be gone?
Not exactly. Oil will still be produced but will be very less & too expensive both cost & energy wise to be useful to us. So most of the powerful military powers like UK or US or China or whoever has more nuclear or more weapons may fight for it & bully others by taking it from the others. We'll have a lot of small conflicts or even a world war(Aha World War 3)!
Man this is too much. I shouldn't have spoken to you at all. I don't want to learn such things.
Same here. But saying that won't make it go away. Think I enjoyed hearing that our way life would come to an end very soon. Even I'm feeling bad about all this. In fact in such a short time we must be able to get everyone aware even before thinking about preparing for a world without oil.
Who'd believe all this? What if all this is wrong?
There are lot of indications for it already. A lot of people are already speaking about it. But they dont get any media attention or wide-spread publication because governments esp the developed world are scared this would cause widespread panic. So such coverage of such information is discouraged. Some governments may even create diversions to avoid the effects from being obvious.
So oil peak has been reached you say? Then what is this 8.5 yrs.
The oil peak has most likely occured already(M. King Hubbert predicted 2006. Some others say 2010-14). But its around the corner or we are sitting on it. after the peak it'll go down as a curve in a similar way it went up. But because of increasing demand it'll go down faster than it went up.
Man you've really made my day. I don't think I can sleep properly hearing all this.


To be continued....